Pune: Speculation Rises Over Alliance Dynamics in Upcoming Maharashtra Assembly and Municipal Elections
Pune, 6th June 2024: After the Lok Sabha elections, excitement is building for the upcoming Vidhan Sabha and local government body elections, which are imminent. There’s speculation about whether the alliances, Mahayuti and Mahavikas Aghadi, will contest against each other or if parties within the alliances will run independently.
In Pune, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a hat-trick in the Lok Sabha elections. However, compared to 2019, Mahayuti, led by BJP, underperformed. Conversely, though the Congress-led NDA lacks a majority at the centre, Mahavikas Aghadi, including Congress, won more seats than Mahayuti in Maharashtra. This has served as a wake-up call for Yuti, while Aghadi has gained confidence. The political landscape in Maharashtra has shifted in recent years, with party fragmentation and unexpected alliances for power. The upcoming Vidhan Sabha and local government elections are anticipated to be different in every aspect.
Pune city has 8 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, with 4 held by BJP MLAs and 2 by Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) MLAs. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and BJP are part of Mahayuti, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena are with Congress in Mahavikas Aghadi. As of now, similar to the Lok Sabha elections, the Vidhan Sabha elections are anticipated to be Yuti versus Aghadi. There may be intra-alliance conflicts over seat allocation, as seen somewhat in the Lok Sabha elections, expected in both Yuti and Aghadi.
Conflicting opinions exist regarding whether municipal elections will precede or follow the Vidhan Sabha polls. There’s a strong likelihood that municipal elections will come first, considering the Municipal Corporation’s power structure based on wards. If so, the elections will be Mahayuti versus Mahavikas Aghadi, or all parties will contest independently. Seat allocation will be pivotal if alliances are formed. In Mahayuti, seat distribution between NCP, Shiv Sena, and the Republican Party (Athawale group) will be crucial. Congress leads Mahavikas Aghadi, and the alliance’s fate hinges on whether Congress yields to its allies, NCP (Sharad Pawar Group) and Shiv Sena (UBT). If alliances dissolve, major parties will stand against each other, or alliances will shift.
